Looking Back : Could My Industrial Internet Startup Have Exited by 2025?

Originally published on Substack.

Back in late 2018, I kicked off my first startup in Hangzhou, diving headfirst into the industrial internet space—think IoT, smart manufacturing, the whole Industry 4.0 vibe. The pandemic hit hard, and we shut down. Now, seven years later, I’m wondering: if I’d kept the hustle going, could I have cashed out by 2025 via an IPO or acquisition? Let’s break it down, comparing the China scene with the global landscape.

China’s Industrial Internet: Exit Odds IPO Game

What’s Up: From 2017 to 2025, China’s industrial internet players like Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII) pulled off some IPOs, showing the market’s got eyes on this space. But the deal is, listings are rare—think regulatory red tape and a market that’s not quite as massive as traditional sectors. Policies are pushing hard for local growth and tech self-reliance.

Could I Have Made It?: If my startup survived COVID, an IPO might’ve been on the table, but it’d be a grind. You’d need serious scale, killer tech (like AI-driven industrial solutions or IoT platforms), and a nod from policy. If I landed big government contracts or showed crazy growth, maybe I could’ve gone public by 2025—but the odds? Slim, given the small number of listings.

Acquisition Play

What’s Up: No major cases of Chinese industrial internet startups getting scooped up by foreign players, likely because of tight regs on foreign investment and a “keep it local” mindset. Domestic M&A exists but isn’t exactly popping off.

Could I Have Made It?: Getting acquired in China? Tough sell. Foreign buyers are basically a no-go, and domestic giants like Huawei or Alibaba might only bite if my startup had some next-level tech or a killer client roster. Post-COVID financials would’ve been a hurdle too. Acquisition wasn’t my best shot here.

Global Scene (U.S./Europe): Exit Odds IPO Game

What’s Up: The U.S. and Europe are crushing it with industrial internet IPOs. North America’s capital markets are straight-up electric—think companies like Rockwell Automation riding the Industry 4.0 wave. VCs are throwing cash, and listing hurdles are way lower than in China. Could I Have Made It?: If I’d set up shop in Silicon Valley or Europe, an IPO would’ve been way more doable. With solid revenue and some innovative tech, I could’ve tapped into the VC hype train and gone public. The U.S. market’s maturity and investor FOMO would’ve given me a legit shot.

Acquisition Play

What’s Up: M&A is hot globally—look at Augury getting snapped up by Newmont. Big players and PE firms are hunting for startups with dope industrial internet tech. The open market vibe in the U.S. and Europe makes cross-border deals a breeze.

Could I Have Made It?: In Silicon Valley or Europe, acquisition would’ve been my golden ticket. If my startup nailed a niche—like predictive maintenance or industrial IoT—I could’ve caught the eye of a strategic buyer or PE shop. The M&A market’s liquidity would’ve been a game- changer.

What It’d Take to Cash Out

To pull off an exit by 2025, here’s what I’d need:

1. Startup Swagger: Did I have a unique tech edge, a loyal customer base, or a scalable model? That’s the ticket for IPOs or acquisitions.

2. Pandemic Pivot: COVID wrecked supply chains and industrial demand. Surviving would’ve meant pivoting to remote solutions or locking in serious funding.

3. Market Timing: China’s policy-driven growth opened some doors, but the U.S. and Europe’s mature markets offered faster exit ramps.

4. Regulatory Realities: China’s rules on data and foreign investment probably kneecapped acquisition options. The U.S. and Europe? Wide open(limited now) for deals.

Bottom Line

If I’d kept my industrial internet startup alive in China, an IPO by 2025 would’ve been a long shot—possible with massive growth and policy alignment, but the sparse listings tell me it’s a tough climb. Acquisition? Even less likely, with no foreign buyers and a quiet domestic M&A scene. If I’d been grinding in Silicon Valley or Europe, though, the odds flip—IPOs are more accessible, and acquisitions are way more likely, especially with a hot niche like industrial IoT. My exit would’ve hinged on tech chops, growth hustle, and dodging the pandemic’s gut punch.